It’s certainly no secret that over the past several months since the change in Premier and Daily events online, the Premier events have struggled mightily to attract players. While Block, Standard and Sealed events still fire off at a semi-regular rate, no other format has been able to make a Premier Event fire off with regular consistency.

This is a problem.

During my trip to Renton to play in the Community Challenge Cup, I was fortunate enough to ge the chance to detail the problem to Mike Gills and Chris Kiritz. I will say that while I felt I was prepared for discussion on the subject, I think I was ill-prepared to describe fully what the problem actually was. I mean, Premier Events weren't firing, but we'd certainly fired off many more daily events. So when WoTC asked what exactly is the problem with Premier Events not firing (other than beyond the obvious) Thankfully, I was able to jump to my feet and recall many of the discussions here on CQ and some of the ones I've had in game.

The problem with Classic not having PEs fire is it is almost impossible to have a properly established Meta Game.

Unlike other formats, Classic relies entirely on online play to establish it's meta game. There are no Pro Tours, Grand Prix, or any other events that can establish best decks. The parallels with Legacy and/or Vintage are tenuous at best. Even if PEs magically disappeared online for 4 months, the Standard players could still simply follow what happens in paper coverage and jump right back in to the fray. The other piece of the Meta Game puzzle is that Daily Events do very little to establish a meta game. No doubt, going 4-0 in a DE is an accomplishment, but generally there is only a single deck that accomplishes this. Going 3-1 however is not much of an accomplishment, and while it pays out, there is a reason that we've allotted it the least amount of points possible in the CQ POTY race - it's very easy to have a lucky day and go 3-1 with practically any very strong classic deck.

Note that I say very strong. I choose those words carefully to indicate that while it's very improbable a weak deck (like say, for lack of a better example, a Zombie deck) could ever go 3-1 in a PE, other much stronger decks, such as Affinity, as a good example, can easily do so - maybe even at a semi-regular basis. It's easy enough to go 2-2 with such a deck on good match ups and have luck go your way at least once to swing the record to 3-1. However, as you up the number of rounds, luck becomes less of a factor. In a 6 round tournament, that 3-1 deck maybe goes 4-2 and perhaps, just perhaps, it's squeaks in an occasional top 8. But generally is doesn't go on beyond that. What PEs do that DEs don't is filter out everything but the best. And that is why PEs are so important to establishing a stable Meta. And a stable Meta is important to a game like Magic because, at it's heart, Magic is a problem solving game. How to I beat more of my opponents than anyone else? That is the question everyone who wants to play competitively should be asking themselves. In Classic, that question is a daunting and almost insurmountable task, because the number of "very strong" decks that a Top-tier decks can lose to is a staggeringly high. It's a very large card pool. PEs help filter out many of those decks because it becomes easier to see they aren't viable when exposed over many rounds to statistically better decks.

The WoTC folks, not to be placated on that information alone, asked more questions. "Isn't having many viable decks good for the format?" That was a doozy, and a loaded question - which I'm sure the people at WoTC have plenty of experience asking. In some ways, it's nice that a cheap deck like Elves and Goblins and Mono-Black decks can place and earn you prizes, but people looking consistently to those decks are every bit as poor as a community addition as people who are only playing classic because the payout happens to be good at the time. They are temporary additions at best. If you want to grow a community, you can't do so by adding people who'll only play one kind of deck and simply not play when it's no longer viable. You need to add players who enjoy playing all the facets the format has to offer, so as the ebb and tide of the meta game shifts they will shift with it. And by that definition, Classic can't be played long term on the cheap. Yes, there are decks you can play that are cheap, but most people don't enjoy having to tip-toe around buying expensive cards for a very long time. What we really want are community players who recognize that while the initial investment can be high for classic, the long-term benefits of that investment can (and usually do) have a good payoff. Those types of players are able build a base of players who'll continue to play for a long time, and won't disappear the instant their pet deck can't cut mustard or can't build a deck on their budget. I'm hoping that I didn't come off as unsympathetic to those who have a limited budget. I fully understand and appreciate that limitation. But the reality of the situation is that classic is, by design, set up to be that way, and the WoTC people definitely understand this. That's why they sanctioned Pauper, after all.

They next asked if the effect of this stable meta game we're looking for wouldn't result also in a "stale" meta game - something that had come up earlier in a discussion about another format (that I won't steal any thunder from, as I expect someone else will be writing about it). At this point I think I surprised Mike and Chris with my response - that the people who are long term interested in Eternal formats had better get used to what a more standard-oriented person would call "stale" - unless WoTC starts pumping out more and more powerful spells in new sets, it's not likely that cards like Force of Will and Strip Mine and Yawgmoth's Will are ever going to be outclassed, and that decks will generally revolve around their power. I think perhaps this is a case where they hadn't realized exactly what drives a classic player. Small changes make a big difference in classic. I had the perfect recent example to use in Misty Rainforest. To someone who doesn't play a lot of competitive classic, the addition of enemy fetchlands to manabases which can already be built out of 10 perfect dual lands and the 5 allied fetchlands seems very insignificant. However, as I reasoned on a recent CQ thread, it is a huge deal in a meta where Wasteland is very prevalent. If you are playing a UG deck, Misty Rainforest is the only card that can ensure you the basic land of your need. That kind of small change can make a deck mainly based on UG more viable than it was previously. Small changes have big effects. One thing I didn't add but should make note of now is that small, cumulative changes also have big effects. Look no further than Merfolk to see what I mean. Wake Thrasher doesn't make the deck. Cursecatcher doesn't make the deck, and Merrow Reejerey doesn't make the deck, but together, along with Standstill, Æther_Vial, etc... it can push a deck over the edge. In that regard, Classic, and eternal formats in general, never really become stale. I really think I drove this point home. I also added that classic is where you expect to find the person who simply loves to play the same deck for a very long time. Maybe they like to play a rotation of the same decks, but however it is, they enjoy being secure that, with only minor tweaks, the cards that were powerful 2-3 years ago are still powerful. While Classic has grown leaps and bounds in that time span, and probably will for the next couple of years, but once we hit Masques block we're going to slow down huge. It's no good hoping that things will not become "stale" by their definition, but neither should there be any concern about the membership suffering for it.

What really clued me in that they had caught on to what I'm talking about (and have related to you over the past 3 paragraphs) is their response "so what you want is rock/paper/scissors". My reply was: "Yes. Well, Rock/Paper/Scissors/Dredge." What decks fit into Rock/Paper/Scissors will change over time, and probably there will be more than one of each type at certain times, no doubt. What we don't want is Rock/Paper/Scissors/Water/Dynamite/Wood/Plastic/Aluminum/Styrofoam/Asbestos/etc... Choosing which to pick is too hard, so you simply avoid doing it at all. At least, you don't risk 10 tickets doing it and you don't wait around hoping 32 other people will too. It very self-reinforcing. Once PEs stop firing, that causes the meta to grow wild and means less people will try a PE.

So then came the big question "So what would you do?" . Of course I had the poll that I'd started of that exact question, and I pretty much quoted the results. They were pleased that I didn't simply say "up the prizes!" (which actually sent us into a long tangent about the prize pay outs online for some time before we circled back around to classic). My assertion was that Classic simply doesn't have the player base to take a hit on the PE changes that were made several months ago, unlike Block or Standard, and if it were possible to go back to the setup that is currently enjoyed by the special weekend challenges (24 players, 6 tix, old prize payout), we'd probably end up putting 30+ players in them as we used to. WoTC winced and then smiled (I honestly can't remember who did - I think Mike G but it could have been Chris K) and then it was there turn to surprise me. Right now, they consider Classic one of their core formats, with a small but ardent community. If they were to make changes specifically to the PEs for Classic, (say to bring it back to the old way) then they couldn't really consider it so anymore - it would have to be considered more like Prismatic, 100CS, and other formats that get much less attention from WoTC. They explained how their business model works in that regard, and though I suppose looking back they never put it as a hard question, do or die, essentially I was challenged as to whether or not if I had the call I would move Classic out of the role of a Core format to get PEs back. I have to admit that I hadn't really considered that as consequence of treating classic different in one respect (in this case, PEs) that it might get treated differently in other respects - to which I can only relate to you that if you were there, that you would have been under the impression that saying yes would have been a bad idea. I hope I'm not relating this in a manner which suggests that WoTC were looking to for me to justify classic's spot in the core formats - in fact - I think that if I had have said yes, they probably would have ignored that suggestion anyway. I almost think it was like a test, to see if I was ready to cave on Long-term gains over short-term goals. I hope I didn't do anyone wrong by saying that I agreed that moving classic out of a Core status solely as a move to regain PEs wasn't something I thought the community would abide by. I certainly hope you agree.

After that, we had a sort of table-clearing conversation. The WoTC folks know that PEs are struggling in general. That being said, the DEs are doing very well, so they are looking to find a happy medium. Bubba made the suggestion that having them in separate rooms, in fact, hampers them both - especially PEs, and I can't tell you how eagerly I agreed that looking in two different places for very similar events seemed very off - especially because I constantly forget to look there myself. Bubba is just that clever, and it was probably the most actionable suggestion made at the table. I also wanted to reassure the WoTC folks that the Classic community is well aware of our own place in the hierarchy of Magic. We know we're not supposed to be as big as Standard or Block - I was slightly afraid they might have got the impression we'd wanted PEs to fire because their PEs were still firing. We know Exodus isn't going to fire off as many drafts as Zendikar or Worldwake. We know that Classic isn't going to be a format in every PTQ online. But I think they've done an increasingly good job of including classic ever since MEDs release. I also personally told them I know the community is prone to making mistakes that we probably don't realize would have been disastrous for us - For example, while we whined and kicked and screamed about no duals in MED, and only 5 in MED2, I think that situation turned out far better than what would have happened if all of them we in either of the first two sets (or I guess if none of them appeared until MED3). I hoped that not doing anything drastic now avoided another such mistake. Sometimes we don't realize what's best for us, and are often too willing to sacrifice long-term gains for short term ones. Of course, I reminded them also that WoTC hasn't been perfect with the slow and steady plan - and I used the 18 month wait between Visions and Weatherlight to point out how much that hurt classic. We sort of left it at that with respect to PEs - that we'd spend the time to look for a better solution.

I know that probably isn't the news everyone was hoping for. I'd like to wave a magic wand and say it will all be better, but I also hope I was successful in giving you the impression that WoTC wishes they had that same Magic wand. That being said, I think that just makes me want to work all the harder to see if there isn't a way to make PEs work under their current configuration. I have some ideas that aren't fully fleshed out yet.

While this article may have given you the impression that all we talked about was PEs, in fact, we discussed much, much more. Much of it relating to things that will affect classic that I have to see if I'm able to repeat publicly. If I can, look for an adjoining article. If not, I'll drop hints...

Like this one:

Do you really think I'd go there and not talk about Vintage/Legacy? :)