In all honesty, I wanted to avoid the subject. I really, really did, if only because I wanted to shield myself from any disappointment. I'm not usually that kind of person, either. I'm normally very happy to get excited about something and then perhaps be let down because I think being excited about things is a) just as good, if not better, than being pleasantly surprised. I know a great many people who'll expect the worst just to that they can be pleasantly surprised. b) I think being excited about things keeps you young. If you are always looking forward to the next great thing, counting down the days, they don't whiz by you so fast, and as I've gotten older, I think I appreciate that trait more and more.

I didn't want to talk about the Power 9 (P9), precisely because I think it's a good bet that they aren't coming this winter. I guess I was shielding myself from disappointment in this case because I think the odds are very, very long against seeing total Vintage goodness in MED4.

However, I've decided to toss that idea out the window. Instead, I'm pulling off 90 degrees and going down a different road.

I'm going to convince everyone they should be there.

The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't

How am I going to do that? Well, In this particular case, I'm going to work in a style I've derived from Douglas Adams, author of one of my favourite series - The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. In particular, this passage is one of my favourites: "The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't". I like that passage because it is an exercise in logic that is sometimes useful. In context, it does a great job of telling you in a humorous way that the ships (in this case, the Vogon ships) were large, unwieldy ships that somehow manage to stay airborne. But in a more logical way, it doesn't actually tell you anything. There are literally an almost infinite number of ways in which things don't hang in the sky, and by saying a single one of them, Douglas Adams didn't come close to logically describing how the ships hung in the sky. In order to do so, he'd have to describe essentially everything in existence that doesn't hang in the sky. Much like the Vulcan philosophy of "If you remove the impossible, whatever remains, however unlikely, must be the truth", what I plan on doing is telling you all the ways that anyone has ever come up (including one of my own which I don't think has been written about) with to effectively release the P9 aren’t very good in order to show you why they should all be in MED4.  Will I logically have covered every possibility?  No, of course not.  But I do hope to describe well enough how all the other ways fall into traps that make them less desirable options.

In order to begin, we must start with our premise. Essentially, the goal we are striving for is:

1) All the cards which are vital to replicating the Vintage environment must be released, and by extension, the P9. This is a given premise because without it, we're not bothering to talk about it
2) The release of the P9 must enact a situation where they are affordable and accessible to a reasonable number of people to make up a Vintage meta game.
3) The release of the P9 must be done in such a way that it, as much as possible, prevent tarnishing of the image of the P9 as "paragons" of Magic cards. If you want to put that in another way, they can't be as common or as easily accessible as coming inside a Cracker Jack box, and they can't be had for just a song and a dance.
4) The release of the P9 must maximize the profit potential for WoTC. In other words, what way will make them the most money.

Before I begin, I think it's important to note that there is a reason that I'm using these criteria. The first is self-explanatory - if you want a debate on whether they should release the P9 online at all, this is not the place for it. However, I phrased it in such a way that also is vital to the task - it is not just P9 we are talking about here. We are talking about getting Vintage online.

The second is a reasonable expectation of the customers. While everyone can disagree on exactly how much they might pay for the P9, there is definitely a spread pattern or concentration in a certain range that is most acceptable to most people. What that range should be is immaterial in so far as how it can managed by the release.

The third might be contentious, but as the release of the P9 is not up to the community, but instead the guardians at WoTC, I can tell you from discussions with WoTC members that this criterion is definitely one that exists for them. They are well aware of the "mystique" of the P9 and do not tread on it lightly.

The last issue you have to assume is the case, because WoTC would be idiots not to make as much money as possible out of releasing the P9. They are, after all, a company.

I should also add that, in all cases, I don't think you can say any one idea will perfectly fit all the criteria. There are definitely shades of grey, especially on the 3rd point, but never the less some of the ideas fit less than others

So without further ado, let's start crushing ideas

Just a concept folks... move along

FTV: Restricted Cards

The concept behind this idea is that there happens to be 15 Vintage restricted cards that have not seen virtual cardboard (P9, Fastbond, Mana Vault, Regrowth, Sol Ring, Time Vault, Wheel of Fortune), and isn't that a nice fit for a From the Vault series?

While the numbers in terms of makeup do gel nicely, there are a myriad of problems with this plan. First of all, there is the minor issue of people who believe that the only way to get a card (ever) shouldn't be in a singles release - that is they should appear in booster packs in some form. In fact, WoTC themselves seem to believe in this, since in the world of paper magic, no tournament legal card has been only released outside a booster pack (with the exception of things like Archenemy "cards" - so let's say core format tournament legal) since the days of Arena/Mana Crypt/Nalathni Dragon/Sewers of Estark/Windseeker Centaur - over 15 years ago. People complained about the Coldsnap Precons being the only way to get certain cards (such as Swords to Plowshares and Brainstorm) and MED2 contained the majority of the missing ones there. This becomes an important situation when you consider there are some cards in the 15 that are banned in other formats and others that are not (like Regrowth in Legacy, and perhaps others in more casual formats)

Another problem is the price of such a set. Charging $34.99 won't work here. That is too demeaning - you are talking about $5 Black Lotuses. Mystique?  Poof! But charging, say $400, brings its own set of problems. What if you want only 2 or 3 cards (let's say Fastbond, Sol Ring and Mana Vault, because they perhaps are legal in in EDH or another non-core format)? Wait for someone to sell on the open market? They are gonna be EXPENSIVE. I don't see too many copies of those cards becoming available. As a Vintage player, I need one of each card. And with any kind of massive price tag attached (in order to satisfy conditions #3 and #4), there is no way in hell I'm buying a second just to get extras for "trading".

Also, let's talk about that massive price tag. While it satisfies #3 in a way, it also works squarely against #2. With a $400 price tag in ALL ONE SHOT and a very static, almost perfectly inelastic secondary market, you probably aren't doing the meta any great shakes. For a large percentage of people , there wouldn't even be hint of approaching this. Think about it this way - Johnny McJob might make enough to draft 2 times a week, but for something like a $400 FTV, he's gotta stop doing those drafts for 14 weeks to pay for this. In terms of buying behaviour, it's much easier to get someone to pay $28 a week then it is to pay $400 all in one shot. In essence, there isn't a price you can set for the P9 that will satisfy all three conditions very well. As you increase the price, you lower both the number of people who can afford it (thus making condition 4 a maximization problem) and as you similarly increase the price to satisfy the mystique issue, you will invariably lower the number of people who can participate in the Vintage meta game.

P9 as Promos

Promo Power

The concept here is to give away the Power 9 cards as promotions. It's possible such a scenario also includes giving away the other vintage playables, but for the purpose here, the actual handing out of the P9 is the important part.

The reason I think this scenario appeals to people so much is it satisfies the 3rd condition well  - making the Power 9 as promos means they are big time rewards, possibly for some big time achievement. In terms of mystique value, in so much as preserving it as much as possible, this idea scores highest, I think. That is, so long as the promo is released in a way that makes it harder to achieve than opening a Cracker Jack box.

And therein lies the problem. Try as you may, it is simply too difficult to come up with a concept that doesn't completely destroy one of the criteria. Lets run through some promo scenarios:

As MOCs reward, top 8 get foil. A lot of people qualify for MOCs, but I don't think nearly enough. Assuming the rate was the same, and only one card (like one of the moxes) was given away, not only would it take 9 such events (or well over a year) to finally get all the P9 into existence, but at sets of ~600 each, I think you are talking well below what the demand would be. You might not think there are 600 people online who'd care about vintage, but believe me, the release of P9 would a) make a lot more people join online specifically to play Vintage and b) there are more than enough people already who'd want the cards, even if they never play a sanctioned eternal match in their life. You are also only rewarding people who win sanctioned matches. The vast, vast majority of people playing MTGO don't give a hoot about QPs - but I'll bet a lot of them would like a Black Lotus.

As player rewards. Too easy. Everyone would simply spend enough money to get one, barring setting the bar very high, and therefore all you are really doing is raising the price of the Cracker Jack box. It's much the same problem as the FTV set - you can't set a good price on something with a guaranteed delivery that doesn't release too much or too little - or at least guessing "sweet spot" price would be out-of-this-world difficult, if not impossible.

By account -Cracker Jack box...

However much you believe that it might be possible for WoTC to figure out a promo that somehow releases a significant but not overly saturated amount of P9, you must also then remember criteria #4. People already pay money to qualify for MOCs or Player Rewards - are giving away P9 going to increase the money spent to the point where it wouldn't make more money some other way? A lot more money? I find this difficult to believe.

Just an evil idea

Release the P9 as special "treasures" in Mercadian Masques

The concept here is that while Zendikar had special treasures for the paper world, saving the P9 as treasures in Mercadian Masques would allow WoTC to invigorate a block that otherwise is very light on constructed playables.

Yup, this one is my idea - and it's pure evil. It's evil because it satisfies to a great degree the criteria which we are operating on. For one thing, I think everyone expects Masques block to be a total bust in terms of draft numbers - people simply won't play because 98% of the rares are utterly worthless, making each and every draft a lottery for Rishadan Port and Misdirection, and later a couple of other sideboard-quality cards. But what better way to make people care about the set than to give them a 1% chance to get a Power 9 card (maybe include other powerful cards. It definitely would increase sales, and I think retain that mystique they are looking for- but I would be concerned highly about criteria #2 - depending on the rate, how can you assure that there will be enough to keep the power 9 from becoming Vintage-like in their scarceness. Certainly not at the rate they appeared in Zendikar packs.

However, I've chewed on this idea for something like 12 months, and I've come to a conclusion that including the P9 in Masques Block packs would probably not make as much money as you might expect. You see, while I really enjoy the symmetry with paper, I can come to no other conclusion that keeping the Power 9 and others out of MEDs will essentially make those MEDs suck. Hard. In other words, whatever money you might gain by making Mercadian Masques with Vintage treasures, you will lose by making MED4 without P9 treasures.

In fact, I think that point possibly spreads across pretty much every idea here... but as a perfect example -

Release the P9 in MED 5

The concept here is that there will actually be an MED 5. Even though MED 5's existence is total speculation, for some reason people believe there is a reason to wait for MED5 as opposed to MED4. I'm still not sure exactly what that reason is. In fact, looking at the remaining non-restricted vintage cards, there isn't a hell of a lot to choose from, so I don't expect there to be enough worthwhile cards to actually make an MED5... unless that MED5 is a set full of reprints - at which point why are you putting the P9 in a set full of reprints? If there is actually a need for a reprint set, surely a set of good reprints doesn't need the presence of the P9 in order to sell such a set. If the concept is that the only way to sell a set of crappy reprints is to pack mythic P9 in there, I submit to you that since a person doesn't actually get a mythic card on average in their total limited play every set, a set full of crappy reprints won't get drafted enough - even with P9 cards, and especially with more mythic than mythic (which has been proposed) P9 cards. I can only conclude that there isn't any reason to make MED5 mythic P9 over MED4 mythic P9, and at least one reason why it's a bad idea (MED5 will be either good reprints or total crap) and at least one good idea (which I'll get to) why they should be in MED4. The exact same logic applies to running some of the P9 in MED4 and some in MED5. Why? What is it about MED5 that needs to be sold - if it exists at all?

The only one good reason I can see holding off on P9 et all until MED5 is a timing issue with MTGO as a client. Much like dual lands were held out of MED1 so that they could appear in MED2 which was scheduled to be released in version 3.0 (and not in 2.5, like MED1). However, I think that plan has shown to have backfired in a couple of different ways - firstly, MED1 wasn't very good and lived mostly off nostalgia - which was great because people initially over-estimated their appetite for nostalgia (like the did with mirage) and bought enough of MED1 to make Force of Will 13 tickets at one point - but that won't happen again. And two - splitting the duals and making a crappy set with only a handful of good cards did nothing for MED2. If it wasn't for the fact that for like 2 weeks WoTC was practically giving them away in sealed queues, we'd all be spending more than paper counterparts for MED2 duals - and those are DUALS. They are needed in all eternal formats and generally as 4x. And you got one one in every 14 packs. In other words, a handful of totally obvious must-buy cards will not maintain sales of a crappy set. If there really is some reason to hold off P9 because we expect a much larger buying base in the future, it would be better to simply hold off from selling MED4 until that time.

Of course, there is one last idea:

Put the unreleased Vintage restricted cards in MED 4 as mythic rares - with a slightly modified mythic frequency

We can only hope

Now I know I've been pushing for this for a long time. As I've explained before, as mythics and restricted, there is a good synergy between something you only need to have one of and something you can't get all that often. I personally think 1 in 8 is probably too frequent when one out of every 2 of those is going to be something in the power range of the P9 (and let's say Timetwister is meh and Time Vault takes it's place), so I'd up it to one in 12 packs. In other words, there are two mythics appearing on average in every draft, and one of them is a Power card. That seems like an absolute perfect ratio - and I think ups the cap on the high-water mark for a P9 card. The high water mark is very important. The high-water mark can be calculated by how many packs it takes to assure, on average, one of every card in the set. So in the case of say, MED3, there are 70 rares, and so it should take 70 packs to get one of every card, and therefore the high water mark is 70 * $packs. The value of the cards are spread around this high water mark while demand is consistent (which it is during release and for sometime afterward in most cases) and supply is unlimited. As demand decreases, and supply remains unlimited, this is when the value of the cards in the set start dipping below the high water mark. Now since drafting something like MED3 makes the packs worth about $3.20 ($112 of packs and tix produces 35 packs), the high water mark floats around $224 - that is if the value of the cards went about that in total, people would simply start drafting on value alone, and increase supply until demand dropped the value further below the mark.

For my hypothetical MED4, the high water mark is $729.60 - assuming 19 mythics (Regrowth not being a mythic) and a mythic at 1 in 12 packs, that means you need 19x12 = 228 packs, netting you 19 mythics and 209 rares. Assuming there are no more than 50 rares in the set, you also have 4x of the rares and 9 extras. Now, if most all of the value of the high water mark are in the mythics, they are worth $38.4 on average. Of course that would mean the less in-demand mythics - like Timetwister or especially the reprints (Balance, Demonic Tutor, Channel, Strip Mine) would be worth much less than the average, so you'd end up having things like $70-80 Lotus, $50-60 Moxes, $40-50 Blue Power, etc...

In case you are not paying attention - yes, I just created a system that means the Power cards are probably costing more than they would be even in a hypothetical $400 FTV set. But I think I've also created a situation where a) Johnny McJob has a chance of getting one and I think that is a situation where the mystique of actually getting a P9 is preserved pretty damn well. It would basically be the same as cracking a Jace or a Baneslayer now. Hence I think I've created a situation where I've sacrificed a little of #2 for a lot of #3 and #4.

Now, I will accept any argument that the MED4 scenario isn't as good as I say it is. Or that it's perhaps too hard on criteria #2 - it'll price people out of playing Vintage. In fact, I actually THINK that on the onset, it might do that.

So I've saved this one last argument for last. The proverbial ace up my sleeve, or even better - that brick hanging in the sky...

Even if I'm wrong, even if MED4 makes a total mess of P9 by making them too hard to get, and too expensive it does have one advantage that the other ideas don't have.

You can't go back in time and remake MED4. You can always add promos, make a FTV set, or even insert power cards cards as treasures in other sets - but there will never, ever be another good chance to put the Power 9 and it's pals in the sets that were ostensibly meant to backfill the missing gaps in eternal magic play.. That's why the cards should be in MED4. Erring on the side of caution with their frequency in MED4 allows you the chance to correct mistake later, if need be.

Now, If I had already or just convinced you off this fact, I was able to garner from Worth Wollpert that WoTC is now pencils-down on MED4, due out on December 13th.  This is a fairly recent fact, so at this point we can only wait and see whether or not WoTC came to the same conclusions I did, or whether they simply have more patience and another trick up their sleeve.