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Puzzle Pieces

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dangerlinto View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Puzzle Pieces
    Posted: 16 Nov 2009 at 10:52am
This thread is for discussion of the article Puzzle Pieces
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Post Options Post Options   Quote BatDwarf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2009 at 12:25pm
Interesting.

Obviously you've done a lot of speculating with this, but the conclusions seem logical.  Exciting anyways!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote whiffy penguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2009 at 1:01pm
i come to much the same conclusion as danger here, there seem to be relevant reasons to move med 4 time slot, but y specifacally mention legacy at all when were still in 2009? i proposed an idea that they wanted to also use classic as a testing ground for some of the iffy urzas block cards banned in legacy. ie we get to play urzas cards for 7-9 months of no power. it would be really interesting to see if any cards came off the legacy banned list after we hit med4 ala dream halls and entomb.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2009 at 1:12pm
I don't know about getting a lot of Legacy B&R testing out of classic testing - maybe some of the iffy ones.  I don't think you'll see unrestricted Will or Academy or anything like that.  But it's interesting to think about some of the more marginal cards in Legacy coming off the list.

Maybe Gush.  Seems to me Gush is simply good without Fastbond, and broken with it.  Maybe Exploration breaks it just as well.  Dunno.  That might be interesting to find out
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Post Options Post Options   Quote menace13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2009 at 2:19pm
kind of bummed as to no legacy in 2010
i am getting old and would like to be able to play legacy already and of course vintage
but hey i guess if they give me p9 i will somehow [sarcastic snicker inserted here] find a way to go onWink
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Post Options Post Options   Quote th1ckasabr1ck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2009 at 4:18pm
Enough is enough already, I want Legacy and Vintage on MTGO and I want them ASAP! Anything that prevents that from happening is a major bummer from my point of view.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Cownose Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 6:50am

Based on complete conjecture, I would come to the same conclusion as well, Danger. I think I will buy extra duals this year as a "bank account" for buying power in December. I think power/legacy will draw a lot of interest, and that duals will be the first things to fly up in price...

Mongooses!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 6:58am
Cow, I've been thinking the same thing for a while.  Sadly, I have no extra money to spend on duals at the moment.

I might also wait to see if there is a farewell MED3 event.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Weltenbrand Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 7:00am

“How would you release the P9 online – would you make them mythic?”



No way, they are far more than some of the crap we call Mythic now.

I did probably release them as treasure cards in ME4 without any expansion symbol.

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Post Options Post Options   Quote menace13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 7:07am
the cost of purchasing all 40 duals now would be somewhere over 600$
i was looking into that as well
 if eventually legacy/vintage come online
those things are as cownose said to be the first to spike in price/demand
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 7:56am
Originally posted by Weltenbrand

“How would you release the P9 online – would you make them mythic?”



No way, they are far more than some of the crap we call Mythic now.

I did probably release them as treasure cards in ME4 without any expansion symbol.



LOL - yeah that would be awesome to have vintage online where only 10 people could play.

Great ideaConfused
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Cownose Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 1:18pm

Another stock tip: Buy your Null Rods right now if you have not already done so =)--they will be big and are very hard to come by.

Mongooses!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote menace13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2009 at 4:58pm
so will drains as they are right now the most powerfull UNRESTRICTED blue card other than force of will, and are a pillar of the best performing deck in vintage.

Edited by menace13 - 17 Nov 2009 at 5:19pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Weltenbrand Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 3:10am
Originally posted by dangerlinto

Originally posted by Weltenbrand

“How would you release the P9 online – would you make them mythic?”



No way, they are far more than some of the crap we call Mythic now.

I did probably release them as treasure cards in ME4 without any expansion symbol.



LOL - yeah that would be awesome to have vintage online where only 10 people could play.

Great ideaConfused


There's much more to consider than you might think about.

Given the P9 regularly distributed in a set will greatly devalue all other cards in the set. Although these cards are something very special, who really wanted them to sell for 15 tix only. Seriously, there needs to be some hierarchy ladder among the formats. While  secluding them from the ME4 distribution you could also give them out with other sets to push sales. In this way the Power 9 would really held some power and would be truly mythic.

Nothing to lol about someone who is reflecting.





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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 6:20am
Treasure cards were a gimmick to sell Zen packs.  It is not an effective distribution method for cards that need to reach the masses.  Let's look at the math of what you suggest

A Treasure was found ~ one in every 20 boxes, or 720 packs of cards.

In a draft (far and away the main source of pack-crakcing online), 24 packs are cracked.  That means a single treasure would be found every 30 drafts.  During a good release week, ME3 was popping out drafts about 10 an hour, and even though this pretend ME4 set has these wonderful treasure, the rest of the set would be extremely weak -  unlike ME3.  There simply aren't many rares left.

Assming you put every single unrestricted and unreleased card as a mythic (of which there are 16), it would take 480 drafts to have a single set appear online.  At a rate of 10 drafts per hour, that's a single set of Power, Time Vault, Library, etc... every two days.

In order to get a single set out just to the people who have top 8 in 2009 in Classic events, it would take 482 days of 10 drafts an hour just to get enough of the treasures into the hands of people who'd at least done well in a classic DE/PE this year.  Never mind that there are many, many more people who'd want them.

MED4 will not be on sale for 482 days.  And it won't have a draft rate of 10/hour for the entire length of it's run.  And there will be far more than 241 players online who'll want them.

The goal is not to make Power 9 cards as expensive or as hard to obtain as they are in paper, Weltenbrand.  Your argument suggests you want this to occur.  Nothing could be worse for the format then adding cards that sell for hundreds or possibly thousands of dollars. 

Perhaps I've thought about this more than you think...
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Cownose Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 6:33am
Putting the power at mythic makes the most sense. I dont know that they will necessarily go for 15 tickets either (maybe timetwister and mox pearl). Look at M10 as an example: M10 has cracked waaaaaay more packs than we could ever hope to in a MED set, and Baneslayer Angel is still over $40.  
 
I dont think classic can take too many barriers to entry. A few barriers are good for the format as they make classic feel special and keep out the random little kids, but I think FoW and the Duals will serve this purpose, assuming wizards doesnt lose their minds and rerelease them. Having 100+ ticket power will ensure that almost noone will be playing Vintage online, I think power in the 20-30 range would be much better for the format as a whole.


Edited by Cownose - 18 Nov 2009 at 6:37am
Mongooses!!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 6:51am
Originally posted by Cownose

Putting the power at mythic makes the most sense. I dont know that they will necessarily go for 15 tickets either (maybe timetwister and mox pearl). Look at M10 as an example: M10 has cracked waaaaaay more packs than we could ever hope to in a MED set, and Baneslayer Angel is still over $40.  
 
I dont think classic can take too many barriers to entry. A few barriers are good for the format as they make classic feel special and keep out the random little kids, but I think FoW and the Duals will serve this purpose, assuming wizards doesnt lose their minds and rerelease them. Having 100+ ticket power will ensure that almost noone will be playing Vintage online, I think power in the 20-30 range would be much better for the format as a whole.


Not to mention that if $100+ are your thing, there will always be FOIL mythic P9 :)
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Post Options Post Options   Quote endless Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 10:01am
I think they could only appear as rares. If they were made mythics, the demand/desirability curves would surely meet somewhere well over 100 tix. Look at baneslayer, how many standard decks use her? Now look at how many vintage decks use most if not all of power. To get people into vintage you'd need prices in the 20-30 tix range. Anything much over 200 tix for the set and you'd scare away many people interested in switching over. You have to remember that a "new" vintage player is going to need more than just the P9 to play.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote endless Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 10:07am
Oh I almost forgot to ask, how much did you think med2 duals would be worth?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote BatDwarf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 10:23am
Originally posted by endless

I think they could only appear as rares. If they were made mythics, the demand/desirability curves would surely meet somewhere well over 100 tix. Look at baneslayer, how many standard decks use her? Now look at how many vintage decks use most if not all of power. To get people into vintage you'd need prices in the 20-30 tix range. Anything much over 200 tix for the set and you'd scare away many people interested in switching over. You have to remember that a "new" vintage player is going to need more than just the P9 to play.


I don't think you'd see the Baneslayer effect here so much for a few reasons:

1.  They're all going to be restricted.
2.  The classic community is smaller than the standard player base.
3.  Taking a look at M10 mythics, there are far less than 9 of them.  Other than baneslayer, all of them are being used only in very specific decks or are reprints.  All this goes to reduce the demand for the others, and hence allow Baneslayer to increase.  This won't be the case with the P9.  All will be desirable.

I think the biggest factor in this is going to be their obvious restriction.  I wouldn't expect mythic P9 to be worth a whole lot more than a rare Mishra's Workshop from the same set.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote walkerdog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 10:44am
Originally posted by endless

I think they could only appear as rares. If they were made mythics, the demand/desirability curves would surely meet somewhere well over 100 tix. Look at baneslayer, how many standard decks use her? Now look at how many vintage decks use most if not all of power. To get people into vintage you'd need prices in the 20-30 tix range. Anything much over 200 tix for the set and you'd scare away many people interested in switching over. You have to remember that a "new" vintage player is going to need more than just the P9 to play.
 
Duals/FoW/Mox D are already over 20+ tix... P9 can be more if that's what happens by printing them at mythic.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 10:53am
Originally posted by endless

I think they could only appear as rares. If they were made mythics, the demand/desirability curves would surely meet somewhere well over 100 tix. Look at baneslayer, how many standard decks use her? Now look at how many vintage decks use most if not all of power. To get people into vintage you'd need prices in the 20-30 tix range. Anything much over 200 tix for the set and you'd scare away many people interested in switching over. You have to remember that a "new" vintage player is going to need more than just the P9 to play.


I refer you to this thread.  Specifically my response to Lours on the same subject.

The most important factor your forgetting is that you need 1/4 the # of those cards than you need of say, duals, FoW, etc...

So if Mythics are twice as rare as a regular rare, but you only need 1/4 of them as a regular tourney rare, than a Restricted Mythic rare is actually putting double the amount of a regular rare with 4x demand into the system.

Oh, and I thought MED2 duals would be in the 8-12 range.  To be fair, that was before the set was spoiled when i thought it would be 60 rares (not 80) and I thought it would have other good, unrestricted cards in it - like MED3. 




Edited by dangerlinto - 18 Nov 2009 at 10:56am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 11:09am
Note - Urza's Legacy is scheduled for June, not September.  I've updated the article.

So we'll be getting 2/3s of Urza's very quickly.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Calavera Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 1:26pm
So now I'm really wondering... How big will MED4 be, and how many Mythics?

Black lotus
5 moxes
ancestral
time twister
timewalk

would all definitely be mythic

what about Library? It sure seems mythic. would they try and balance out making some cards from other colors mythic? possibly push some into an MED5?
Will we get every commonly played tourney card in MED4 or will there still be some unreleased staples missing from Legacy/Vintage decks? I'd almost like to see a HUGE set with everything left. but there are 1023 cards left.. enough for 3 sets.

workshop
Sinkhole
sol ring
time vault
regrowth
mana vault
statis

there is a lot of good stuff left.

and lastly... What in the world will the set have for Creatures?

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Post Options Post Options   Quote dangerlinto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2009 at 1:37pm
Originally posted by Calavera

there is a lot of good stuff left.


I urge you, if you think there is a lot of "good stuff" left, to try an put together MED4 yourself, just for fun.  But here's the kicker - don't put any restricted cards in a regular rare slot.    I've been doing it for the past couple of weeks, and there is very little in the way of what anyone would rightly term "good stuff" left, much less anything of any cohesion.

For example, 4 of your "good stuff" are restricted/rares.  And don't forget that these set have to be draftable, so the distribution has to be pretty even across the colors.

You also have to remember that in order to keep around the Mythic rarity, you have to put ~ 2 mythic rares for every 7 regular rares.  if you have just 10, it means just 35 rares in the set, but Master's Editions tend to be around 200 or so cards.

Here's what I cam up with:  Danger's MED4

Essentially, getting even 8 rares/ color was an impossibility with green (I left Multicolor out because it was basically killed with MED3), and in fact I gave up with the 8th green rare and just put in Birds of Paraside because I had a birds sub-theme going.

Getting blue creatures is also very hard.

So yes, there is some good stuff left, but try making even one MED4 set yourself, and you'll see that that in practice, those nearly 1000 cards leftover aren't enough to make even another set - of any size

If there is going to be an MED5, it won't follow the same rules as the previous ones with respect to new-to-online cards.
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